Realtors' chief economist tells Rotarians to concentrate on local market
Birmingham Business Journal - 3:09 PM CDT Wednesday
Staff
David Lereah, senior vice president and chief economist of the National Association of Realtors , delivered good news Wednesday to the Rotary Club of Birmingham: The nation's housing market isn't as bad off as the media would have you think.
Outlining conditions in the national and local real estate markets, Lereah encouraged the Rotarians to tell the news media that real estate is a local market and shouldn't be judged against the rest of the country. The data is there is to support the good news for Birmingham, he said.
There are some major metro areas in the country that are experiencing "big pain," Lereah said, citing Miami and Las Vegas as prime examples.
He said two-thirds of the country is currently experiencing a real estate recession and the news media pundits apparently expect that decrease to spread to the rest of the country. He said he believes Birmingham is among that third of the country that will avoid a major housing downturn.
According to Lereah, Birmingham's metro area is benefiting, if indirectly, from the problems that the Gulf Coast and Florida have had in the past year due to Hurricane Katrina. Those benefits will continue for another decade, he said.
He said that Birmingham needs to support businesses that will create jobs to attract those households and businesses that are leaving the coastal areas for good.
Lereah expects real estate prices to continue to fall in most U.S. markets. In areas that experienced the largest price appreciation in recent years, a correction is needed, he said, this time citing San Francisco as the best example.
Lereah predicted that 2007 will be a modest year in real estate, although he encouraged Rotary Club members to ignore negative press and concentrate on how the fundamentals of the marketplace are playing out in Birmingham.
Lereah's latest book, "All Real Estate is Local," will be released by Doubleday in February.